The international oil environment resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Its effects on the energy transition and the climate change processes

Abstract

The objective of the research is to analyze the volatility of the international oil market as a result, first, of the contraction-recovery of the world economy due to Covid-19 and, second, of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Methodologically, we work with comparative statistics applied to the international price of oil observed during the last 50 years, within the framework of the Juglar and Kuznets cycles theory, by means of which it is determined that price increases are several times higher when geopolitical conflicts occur (1973, 1979, 1990 and 2022) than economic-financial ones (1987, 2001, 2009, 2015 and 2020). It is understandable then that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had a devastating effect not only on the increase in the price of energy and gas, but also fertilizers, wheat, and other commodities. The historical-technical combination of geopolitics with economic-financial factors is very relevant in times of price volatility. A prolonged period of instability is to be expected, with oil prices close to 100 dollar per barrel, associated with the Russian interest beyond the Donbas region.